Blog post
Heatwave questions left unanswered: How will these heatwaves impact our food security?
Nico King
September 4, 2026
We’ve all seen the headlines. We’ve all felt the heat.
This summer, the UK has undergone six separate heatwaves, broken nation-wide temperature records at least ten times, suffered countless wildfires, and seen over 2,900 heat-related deaths. We’ve already explored the lack of media representation, but now we’ll focus on how these heatwaves will impact our food security.
Wheat is the UK’s most produced crop, and we are renowned worldwide for our high quality wheat. But following the heatwaves and drought, UK wheat production in 2026 is on track to be well below our 10 year average, which will be a serious hit to our economy and to food prices both locally and internationally. And it’s not just wheat, the 2026 overall cereal and oilseed rape harvest is on track to be the UK’s worst in over forty years, and shortages in lettuce and cabbages are already being reported by distributors and food services.
Key areas of arable and pastoral farmland have been completely without rain for up to three months. Areas in the North East normally see an average of 244mm of rainfall between May and August but have received less than 30mm of rain in the same period this year. As a result, cereal crops across the country have failed to grow to their expected size and have become ready to harvest around a month earlier than usual, forcing farmers to alter their tight schedules to meet the earliest harvest in 20 years.
Lettuce, carrots, broccoli and potatoes are also among the hard hit vegetable crops this year. Despite efforts to keep crops in controlled climates, temperatures are high enough that many leafy vegetables and brassicas (broccoli, cauliflower, bok choy, cabbage, etc.) are entering “thermal dormancy”: periods in which they stop growing due to heat stress. Vegetables which go through thermal dormancy are often smaller or lower quality than expected by the time they’re ripe enough to be picked, or become unsuitable for sale altogether, and farmers in the UK are well aware that this means higher prices for consumers and fewer vegetables on store shelves.
Livestock farmers have also been dealing with the worst bluetongue outbreak (a viral disease amongst cattle and sheep) since it was first detected in the UK, according to the National Farmers’ Union president. As well as increasing disease spread, higher temperatures cause animals to eat less and can negatively impact their growth, fertility and welfare. Through July, milk deliveries from UK farms fell by 3.2% compared to previous years, and by 4.5% in the first week of August.
The issue of food security is frequently raised when it comes to conversations on climate change, but it is often talked about in terms of whole communities being malnourished and children dying from starvation after a “bad harvest” or as food and crops becoming contaminated or destroyed after a “natural” disaster. Climate-induced food insecurity is unlikely to be so severe in the UK at the moment, we have that privilege, but we need to start recognising what it will look like and calling the signs what they are. Food insecurity in the UK will begin as drops in domestic food production, more farms going out of business, and more families on the poverty line, all things which are already happening. Food production and exports are already falling*, causing reliance on imports to increase and prices to rise†. More people and families on low incomes are increasingly unable to afford their weekly food shop and are being forced to depend on food banks, which are already pressed to their limits, or go without. UK farms are struggling to make profits or break even‡, pushing small and family farms out of business as irrigation, grass crops for animal food and bedding, and feed costs rise and crop and animal production drops.
To answer my question, these heatwaves are significantly impacting the UK’s food security for the worst. While most of us aren’t going to starve over the winter, climate change induced food insecurity is another issue which has been devastating communities and countries in the Global South for decades and, because of our refusal to take action against climate change, is now coming to haunt us in the Global North.
* Four of the five worst harvests on record have occurred this decade: 2020, 2024, 2025 and 2026 - https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/uk-harvest-even-worse-than-previously-thought-new-data
† Wholesale tomato prices have increased by over 60%, iceberg lettuce prices by 90%, potato prices by over 40% - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/05/global-heating-public-services-struggling-heatwaves
‡ National Farmers Union “many [farmers] are worried they will not have money in the bank to plant next year’s crops or replace livestock” - https://www.nfuonline.com/news/nfu-convenes-farming-roundtable-as-farmers-reach-crisis-point/