Memory is a strange thing. Our memories – memories of our lives and of the Earth as we know it – shape how we respond to different situations, influence our worldviews and dictate our competing conceptions of normalcy. How funny, then, that our memories should be so limited – that such an essential tool for grasping the nature of the world around us should be restricted to the experiences of our own lifetimes, supplemented only by the scattered anecdotes from our parents’ and grandparents’ generations and the fleeting remembrance services for the events which society deems worthy of passing on. It is said that the public memory is a fickle thing, with grand events and great happenings fading in our minds just as suddenly as they occurred. Perhaps our lives are shaped just as much by the memories we have lost as by the memories we retain.
Two and a half decades ago, in 1995, the renowned marine biologist Daniel Pauly considered the impact of that loss of memory upon the state of the planet’s fisheries. In one of his most celebrated papers, he developed the concept of ‘shifting baseline syndrome’ – a condition for humanity whereby we inflict greater and greater destruction upon the world around us and, thus, upon ourselves as a direct result of our proclivity for forgetfulness.
So what is the shifting baseline syndrome – and how does it relate to climate change and the importance of climate education?
Simply put, the shifting baseline syndrome is the redefinition of normalcy by each generation based upon the memories and experiences of their youth. Working with anecdotal evidence, Pauly suggested that, where fisheries science was concerned, the normal health and magnitude of fish stocks was being redefined with every passing generation of fisheries scientists, since each new generation would consider what they observed at the start of their careers to be the norm – the baseline. Hence, with each passing generation, that baseline would shift, with every generation having set its baseline at a time of greater fish stock size and better fish stock health – thereby allowing the ongoing depletion of fish stocks to seem less significant over the course of their lifetimes.
With every loss of memory – with every redefinition of normalcy – we forget just how much we have already lost.
And, thus, we arrive at climate change: the most pressing issue of our time.
In that same 1995 paper, Pauly mentioned how the amalgamation of sea surface temperature data dating back as far as 1870 had served as evidence for the occurrence of global warming – probably the most prominent aspect of climate change in the public consciousness. Perhaps the shifting baseline syndrome is affecting us here, too – and where better to look for an example of this than in the intensification of Summer heatwaves, perhaps the most prominent impact of climate change to the average person in the UK?
Data from the UK Met Office demonstrates a series of stark changes with regards to our Summer heat waves over the course of the past two or three generations – changes which may well have corresponded with a significant shift in what we collectively consider to be the baseline for such events. Those who grew up in the UK during the period from 1961 to 1990 would have spent their Summers enjoying heat waves which lasted on average 5.3 days; their children or even grandchildren, however, growing up between 2008 and 2017, would have instead become accustomed to far longer heatwaves, reaching 13 days on average. Between these two periods, the average temperature of the hottest day of the year also rose significantly – by 0.8°C. Further work by the Met Office in 2018 indicated that, as a result of climate change, such heatwaves are approximately thirty times as likely.
And under no circumstances should we see these events as merely good weather to enjoy: heatwaves claim lives by the thousand, young and old – and particularly those most vulnerable to them.
Not only that, but the intensification of such events as a result of climate change is only worsening – with the Summer of 2018 claiming a total of 863 more deaths in England than the expected baseline amongst people over the age of 65.
Which brings us to education.
In his shifting baselines paper, Daniel Pauly concluded that a greater understanding of fisheries history might enable his discipline to start to surmount the obstacle of the shifting baseline syndrome. Perhaps a greater understanding of where we have come from – of the memories lost to us over the generations, consigned to the furthest reaches of museum archives and library backrooms – would help us to start making that same progress where climate change is concerned. Our education system – where it does, all too infrequently, discuss climate change – tells us only of the disaster we face now, but not of the systemic degradation which led to it or of the time before that degradation began. When I have delivered small talks on climate change and marine biology to school students, I have always been impressed by the awareness even very young children have of the sorry state of the Earth today – but what has so often been lacking is a knowledge of what came before and of how that state came to be.
Now, I find myself asking this question: how can we truly understand the sheer horror of how we have degraded our planet and systematically caused the suffering of those most vulnerable in our society if we are not taught about the world before the damage? Then, more hopefully and, thus, more importantly, I find myself asking a second question: what can we do, how can we change our education system, to overcome the shifting baseline syndrome, to reclaim those lost memories and to prepare us to face the great challenge of climate change?
Sometimes, a hopeful question is important.
Daniel Pauly’s Shifting Baselines Paper - https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.737.5584&rep=rep1&type=pdf
UK Met Office Heatwave Data (1) – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-extreme-events_heatwaves
UK Met Office Heatwave Data (2) - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2018/2018-uk-summer-heatwave
Public Health England Heatwave Mortality Data - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/942648/PHE_heatwave_report_2018.pdf
